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Coastal Victoria incorporates diverse land uses and varies significantly in its population density and demographic characteristics of its settlements, many of which are changing.

The population of coastal Victoria increased by more than 10% between 1991 and 2001. This was considerably faster than Victoria as a whole, which resulted in coastal Victoria forming a larger share of Victoria's population. This pattern of population growth is expected to continue into the future, albeit at lower rates. This pattern of slowing growth is consistent with trends in most parts of Victoria, as the population ages.

Figure 3: Summary of historical and projected population trends (1991, 2001 and 2011)1

How does the current coastal age structure compare to Victoria as a whole?
The age structure of coastal Victoria is relatively similar to Victoria as a whole. However on the coast, there is a lower proportion of the population under the age of 50 and a larger share over the age of 50. This is consistent with the role that the coastal regions play outside Melbourne, with significant relocation of retirees (50+ years) to coastal Victoria.

How has the age structure changed and how will it change in the future?
Between 1991 and 2001, the population of coastal Victoria increased in most age groups, especially those aged 35 years and above. The increase relates to the ageing of the 'baby-boomers', a large generation of people born after the Second World War. There were decreases in the number of people aged 15-24.

This is a pattern that relates to the ageing of the population, falling fertility rates over the previous two decades and the movement (or relocation) of young people from coastal areas in regional Victoria to metropolitan Melbourne and regional centres. There has also been an increase in the number of children, although the number of 0-4 year olds has fallen by 5,000.

The population of coastal areas is estimated to age further between 2001 and 2011. The number of people aged between 45 and 69 is projected to increase strongly, while people aged 15-24 and 70 and over are also set to increase over this period. However, there is expected to be a fall in those aged 0-14 and 25-34. This is consistent with patterns of declining numbers of young families across the State.

Figure 4: Projected population change in coastal Victoria, 2001-2011 2

Diagrammatic not to scale

How does the population of coastal Victoria vary at different times of the year?
The coast experiences great variations in the size of coastal town populations at different times of the year. For example, figures prepared by the Department of Infrastructure suggest that towns such as Lorne can experience a 500% increase in their population during the peak summer season. Increases such as these can place huge pressure on the natural coastal environment and existing services, infrastructure and amenities, which normally cater for substantially fewer people.

Key trends and emerging demographic issues
Overall we can expect:

• an ageing population means that many areas will have a more dependent population in the future, which may require different facilities and services;
• the average number of people in each household will decrease, as the population ages and as families become smaller;
• as a result of the ageing population, many coastal areas will have an increase in population not related to dwelling construction, with the conversion of holiday homes to permanent residences;
• many areas will have pressure to increase housing densities, most notably in Melbourne and along key holiday areas, such as Mornington Peninsula, Surf and Bass Coasts;
• coastal Victoria will continue to grow at faster rates than Victoria as a whole and increase its share of population; and
• visitor numbers to coastal areas will continue to increase as a result of improved mobility and regional access.